Open a news app on any morning this year and just watch the headlines go by. A trade story, then a drought story, then something about a bond yield, then a satellite. A few years ago you’d have read those as four different beats, written by four different reporters, for four different kinds of reader. Now they blur together. I don’t think that’s the app’s fault. I think the world has quietly stopped keeping those stories apart. That’s why this year feels different to me. I don’t mean worse, because worse has been the background noise for a long time. I mean different, as if something shifted and we all felt it without having the words. The best I can come up with is that we stopped being able to pretend the problems are separate. For years we kept them in boxes. Climate in one, debt in another, trade wars over here, water over there, each with its own tidy panel of experts. Somewhere along the way the walls came down. It’s all one room now, and the room is on fire. Start with the peopl...
The Multipolar Illusion: Why the "Rise of the Global South" Is More Complicated Than Anyone Wants to Admit
I’ve followed the BRICS story for a while now, and the longer I watch, the more it seems everybody is arguing about different things. One camp says it’s the end of America. The other says it’s a joke, a talking shop with a nice logo. Hardly anyone asks the boring, obvious question: what do these countries actually want? I don’t mean what the summit statement says, because those get written by committee and sanded down until nobody objects. I don’t mean what we project onto them either, whether that’s hope or fear. I mean what a finance minister in one of these capitals wants when the cameras are off and she’s staring at a spreadsheet. So let’s start with what’s real. The dollar is fine for now. If someone tells you it’s about to collapse, check what they’re selling, because it’s usually a newsletter, a gold coin or a bunker. But it is slowly getting diluted, and that happens in small, dull ways. India pays for Russian oil in rupees. Brazil and China settle soybean deals in yuan. Centra...