Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned the international community on May 22, 2025, in a letter to the United Nations, claiming that the United States would be legally liable if Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. This was said amid reports of an imminent Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, heightening fears of a wider regional war. As the U.S. and Iran sit down for delicate nuclear negotiations in Rome, the threat of war hangs over diplomatic efforts and could spark a volatile escalation in the Middle East. This article looks at recent developments, the reasons behind Iran's accusations, and the global implications for stability under Trump.
The Trigger: Israel's Alleged Strike Preparations
Strains between Israel and Iran have been bubbling along for years over Iran's nuclear program, which Israel perceives as a threat to its very existence. Recent American intelligence, CNN reported on May 21, 2025, indicates that Israel is currently gearing up for potential attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. These preparations consist of intercepted messages, monitored Israeli military movements, and public assertions by Israeli officials like Defense Minister Israel Katz, who in November 2024 had stated that Iran is "more vulnerable than ever" to such attacks. The intelligence suggests no decision has been taken, but the chances of a strike have increased substantially, especially if U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations fail to tackle Israel's worries regarding Iran's uranium enrichment.
Iran's nuclear program, which it maintains is civilian in nature, has been a tinderbox for decades. Western countries, including the U.S., accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons, something that Tehran denies. Iran is now enriching uranium to 60%, well beyond the 3.67% cap of the 2015 nuclear accord but short of the 90% mark of weapons-grade material. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) collapse during President Trump's first term, followed by Iran's subsequent back-tracking on commitments, has generated apprehension that Tehran is approaching a "nuclear threshold" point, where it could make a bomb if it wishes to.
Iran's Warning and U.S. Accountability
At these reports, Foreign Minister Araghchi threatened that any Israeli strike at Iran's nuclear facilities would trigger a "devastating and decisive response" by Tehran, and the U.S. would be held responsible as Israel's closest ally. In a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Araghchi asserted that an attack by the "Zionist regime" would put the U.S. in the line of responsibility because of its military and political backing of Israel. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also echoed this, with its spokesperson, Alimohammad Naini, stating that Israel is underestimating the military and popular power of Iran.
This language is indicative of Iran's policy to deter aggression by increasing the costs for both Israel and the U.S. By turning the U.S. into a legally culpable entity, Iran hopes to force Washington to curb Israel, particularly as nuclear negotiations fail. Araghchi’s remarks on Iranian state TV underscored the impasse: “If the U.S. aims to end uranium enrichment, there will be no deal.” Iran insists on its sovereign right to enrich uranium, rejecting U.S. demands for a complete halt as “excessive and outrageous,” a sentiment echoed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks: A Fragile Diplomatic Thread
The fifth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, scheduled for May 23, 2025, in Rome, is a make-or-break moment. Facilitated by Oman, the indirect talks are intended to revive a nuclear accord, providing sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Iran's nuclear program. Yet profound differences remain, especially over uranium enrichment. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has described a full enrichment stoppage as a "red line," while Iran has promised to keep enriching "with or without an agreement."
The negotiations are also under pressure from the possible Israeli actions. Israeli leaders, who are unconvinced about diplomacy, think the door for a military attack is closing rapidly, perhaps because of Iran's developing nuclear program or changing regional powers, such as the fall of the Syrian Assad regime that undermined the networks of Iran's proxies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is said to be waiting for a breakdown in negotiations to gain U.S. support for a strike, seeing it as a strategic moment to eliminate Iran's nuclear danger.
The Trump administration's position is divided. While Trump has seemed to welcome diplomacy, telling in April of 2025 that he wishes Iran to "live happily without death," he has also threatened a "maximum pressure" effort, such as eliminating Iranian oil sales if negotiations collapse. But American officials have made it clear that any Israeli attack on Iran would not be directly supported by the U.S. military unless there is substantial Iranian provocation, a position that indicates caution to avoid entrapment in a wider war.
Regional and Global Consequences
An Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, for example, the highly fortified Fordow or Natanz sites, would involve deep risks. Experts question whether even a sophisticated assault would be able to completely destroy Iran's nuclear program, considering its scattered infrastructure and scientific capacity. An attack may set back Iran's capabilities by months or a year but may spur Tehran to accelerate weaponization surreptitiously, particularly as its proxy forces such as Hezbollah and Hamas grow weakened. Iran threatened attacks on Israeli nuclear facilities in retaliation, and the threat of tit-for-tat escalation hangs in the balance.
Regionally, the attack would further destabilize the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have denounced Israeli actions but are apprehensive about Iran's nuclear aspirations and can silently back measures to check them, although they do not want to be in the middle of the firing line. Jordan and Iraq, whose air space could be employed for Israeli attack, have rejected providing such facilities, fearing Iranian reprisal. Worldwide, an attack would push oil prices higher because Iran is the world's third-largest oil producer in OPEC, and upset diplomatic efforts currently underway, such as the expiring "snapback" sanctions regime in October 2025.
Domestic Iranian politics complicate matters. An attack might consolidate public opinion behind the regime, suppressing opposition by portraying it as treason in times of national crisis. Alternatively, it might fuel public discontent if the regime's reaction results in extended conflict or economic deprivation.
The Chip War Connection: A Broader Context
The Israel-Iran nuclear tensions intersect with the broader U.S.-China chip war, as advanced semiconductors are critical for military and AI applications. Iran’s reliance on Chinese technology, including Huawei’s AI chips, has raised U.S. concerns about potential technology transfers that could enhance Iran’s nuclear or missile programs. The Trump administration's imposed export restrictions on Chinese companies such as Huawei, announced in May 2025, are designed to curtail such risks but risk driving Iran further into China's sphere, making the nuclear standoff more difficult.
The Road Ahead: Diplomacy or Aggression
As the U.S.-Iran negotiations go on, the world community has a shrinking time frame in which to forestall escalation. The Trump administration's transactional strategy—threading the needle of diplomacy with threats of sanctions—could find it difficult to balance Israel's security concerns against Iran's determination to maintain nuclear sovereignty. Israel's preparations and Tehran's threats of retaliation imply that any misjudgment could kindle a broader war, which might engage the U.S. and regional actors.
For now, Iran’s warnings serve as both a deterrent and a plea for diplomatic resolution. Araghchi’s emphasis on holding the U.S. accountable underscores Tehran’s strategy to internationalize the crisis, hoping to constrain Israel through global pressure. However, with Netanyahu signaling readiness to act unilaterally and Trump’s patience for talks waning, the Middle East stands on the brink of a perilous escalation.
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