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U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites: Unraveling the Impact of Operation Midnight Hammer

 

On June 22, 2025, the United States launched a stunning military assault, code-named Operation Midnight Hammer, against Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. It was a biting switch in the Israel-Iran war, pushing the U.S. into direct confrontation after weeks of growing tensions. President Donald Trump confidently declared the attacks a total success, asserting that they "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program and dealt a devastating blow to Tehran's plans. But as satellite imagery and early intelligence reports arrive, the more sobering picture reveals widespread but reversible damage, possibly delaying Iran's program by several months at most, not destroying it entirely. With Iran deeming "badly damaged" targets and hinting at preemptive evacuations, and global leaders cautioning against danger of escalation, the real impact of this operation remains a subject of close scrutiny and debate. 


The Operation: A Military Success with Strategic Ambitions

Operation Midnight Hammer was a highly planned attack, with over 125 American warplanes, seven of them B-2 stealth bombers armed with GBU-57 "bunker buster" bombs—the most lethal weapons of mass destruction short of nuclear bombs. From American bases, the operation would take an 18-hour flight, with decoy aircraft flown over the Pacific to mislead Iranian defense systems. The B-2s dropped 14 of the 30,000-pound bombs on Natanz and Fordow, and an American submarine fired over two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles at Isfahan. The bombings, which were conducted between 22:40 GMT and 23:05 GMT, struck the heart of Iran's uranium-enriching capability, with the aim of crippling its capability to produce weapons-grade material.


Trump, in his national address following the strike, framed the action as a preemptive strike against Iran's nuclear capability, threatening Tehran with "much bigger" strikes if it did not seek peace. It was timed to fit with Israel's earlier attack on June 13 that had already disabled Natanz and Isfahan, making it suspect that there was a concerted effort to degradate Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dan Caine termed the operation a "spectacular military success," even as he cautioned that a complete battle damage assessment would take time.


Satellite Imagery: A Window into the Aftermath

Satellite imagery, captured by companies like Maxar Technologies, offers the first hard look at the effects of the strikes. At Fordow, a deeply buried plant near Qom, photos indicate six fresh craters clustered around tunnel openings, with gray dust and wreckage deposited along the mountainside. The damage appears concentrated on access roads and buildings above ground, but the below-ground halls for enrichment—constructed up to 260 feet beneath the surface—show no discernible sign of collapse. Similarly, Natanz has craters and rubble above-ground facilities like centrifuge buildings but its underground cascades are not affected. Isfahan, which has been hit by cruise missiles, has widespread surface damage, with debris scattered across most of the nuclear technology center, though middle underground sections appear intact.

Experts interpret these images with caution. The craters suggest GBU-57 bombs burrowed deep, but the lack of reported collapse in underground facilities raises doubts about the effectiveness of the attacks to entirely annihilate Iran's infrastructure. Pre-strike images of trucks and bulldozers sealing tunnel entrances at Fordow and Natanz indicate Iran may have had advance warning of the attack, perhaps relocating enriched uranium or sensitive equipment elsewhere. This preemptive step could be responsible for the minimized radiation leaks, which the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) witnessed while also not detecting any off-site contamination despite "extensive additional damage" in Isfahan.


Obliteration or Setback? Tales Clash

The American version, led by Trump, is one of total victory. The president's declaration of "obliteration" finds resonance within official statements, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stating that the strikes "devastated" the Iranian nuclear program. Early Pentagon accounts corroborated this, detailing "extremely severe damage and destruction" at each of the three facilities. But a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency report, based on initial findings, refutes this optimism, estimating that the program had been set back a few months at most. The report states that the strikes blocked entrances but did not bring down underground buildings, leaving Iran's technical capability intact. 

Iranian officials paint a different picture. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) conceded "badly damaged" facilities but maintained that nothing in the way of radiation risks put local civilians in danger, attributing this to advance safety measures. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei referenced evacuations, suggesting Tehran had moved ahead of time to take measures. This report is also in line with satellite intelligence of anomalous activity before attacks days ago, fueling speculation that Iran avoided the worst by moving sensitive assets out of the way. The IAEA's Rafael Grossi, confirming "direct kinetic impact" at Fordow, admitted it was too early to assess damage underground, heaping on the uncertainty.


The Strategic Calculus: A Gamble for High Stakes

American intervention in joining Israel's crusade is a strategic gamble to shield against Iran's nuclear aspirations without triggering all-out war. Trump's team, invoking a "peace through strength" policy, aimed to compel Tehran to accept diplomatic concessions or ceasefire. The precarious ceasefire deal brokered following the raid, which is currently holding as of June 26, 2025, bodes short-term triumph, but Iran's response remains an unknown variable. Tehran has threatened a "proportionate response," with options ranging from missile strikes on US bases—as on June 24 in Qatar—to shutting down the Hormuz Strait, an important oil transport route.

Around the globe, reactions are split. UN Secretary-General António Guterres decried the strikes as "dangerous escalation," urging diplomacy to prevent a crisis in the region. NATO allies as they increase defense expenditure to 5% of GDP at Trump's request are nervous about his commitment to Article 5. Russia and China condemned the operation, with Moscow inviting Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to consider counter-strategies. The success of the strikes is contingent on Iran's future move—whether it rebuilds covertly or negotiates—and thus the next few weeks are decisive.


Domestic and International Ripples

In the United States, the strikes have created a political firestorm. A June 22-24, 2025, CBS News/YouGov poll demonstrated most Americans to disapprove on the grounds of the absence of congressional approval. Republicans, including former adversary Jeb Bush, hailed the move as a show of force, with Democrats like Hakeem Jeffries criticizing Trump for risking a "catastrophic war." The White House called the leaked document "flat-out wrong," calling for an FBI probe into the source of the leak.

Worldwide, Israeli Netanyahu welcomed Trump's "historic decision" as a turning point, supporting his assertions of military supremacy. Iran's retaliatory suspension of IAEA cooperation and warning to global trade arteries constitute defiance, potentially supporting its allies' support. Success or failure in the operation can reshape the credibility of the U.S., Middle Eastern alliances, and the international non-proliferation order with long-lasting effects still in the process of being formulated.


Conclusion: A Turning Point or a Temporary Pause?

Operation Midnight Hammer is a solid attempt to reframe the Iran nuclear crisis but is uncertain about its fate. Satellite imagery and intel confirm the surface damage from the attacks was severe, but Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan's underground survivability made Trump's "obliteration" claim doubtful. Iran's preemptive evacuations and the program's recuperative powers reinforce the boundaries of military action against a dedicated foe. Even though world leaders struggle with the escalations' risks and Iran weighs its response, the true impact of the operation may lie in diplomatic dividends, not battlefield triumph.

The Middle East stands at a crossroads. Will the strikes discourage Iran from pursuing its nuclear dream, or push it towards a covert program driven by its residual reserve of uranium? Can the ceasefire hold, or will it break down into a greater conflict? The world holds its breath, at least, as the dust literally and figuratively subsides.

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